How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes? The El Niño/La . . . → Read More: 2011: Earth’s 11th warmest year, Part 2]]> As detailed in a previous post, 2011 was tied for the 11th warmest year on record globally. But there are number of natural climate forces that appear to be holding the temperature down lower than it might be.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global temperatures were 0.12°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead . . .

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 33 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span.

. . . A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 – 2010, took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 – 0.17°C (0.25 – 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 33 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.

Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 – 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight.

In Part 3, we’ll see what climate scientists are predicting based on the the trends measured to date. Or you can read the rest of the analysis at Dr. Jeff Masters’ blog.

YORK — Protecting lobsters and the ocean from the harms of pesticides and lawn chemicals is . . . → Read More: Protecting the ocean from lawns]]> Well, the problem is not lawns themselves but the overuse of fertilizers and pesticides on lawns, which can eventually run off into fragile waterways. A group in York is looking to protect our local river and ocean ecosystems.

YORK — Protecting lobsters and the ocean from the harms of pesticides and lawn chemicals is the goal of a new group in town.

Lawns 2 Lobsters, made up of community board members, town officials and other residents, held its second meeting Jan. 18 at the Senior Center. The group is seeking to raise awareness of its mission by printing brochures, having a web presence and creating lawn signs.

Members include representatives from the York Harbor Board, the Old York Garden Club, lawn company owners, town officials and others. Their aim is to reduce the amount of fertilizer that seeps into local waterways.

“Fewer chemicals, cleaner water,” is the motto of the growing statewide effort that began in Kennebunkport in 2009.

Other towns call their effort “Lawns for Lobsters.” At the first meeting in December, the local group decided “Lawns 2 Lobsters” sounded more dynamic, said Town Planner Christine Grimando, who facilitated the meeting of an estimated dozen people.

Linda Scotland of the Cape Neddick River Association made the initial pitch to start a group in York, Grimando said.

The Cape Neddick River Association is working to clean up pollution in the river, where water tests often return high bacteria levels.

Scotland is working on printing signs sporting a red lobster with a shovel that can be placed on York lawns.

Resident Carol Donnelly said the group needs to find ways to make a statement at events such as those held on Earth Day.

The group promotes alternatives to fertilizer and suggests such practices as planting clover, which chokes weeds, and also creating sustainable landscapes by allowing the growth of indigenous plants. Water runoff can be avoided by allowing a lawn to grow at least three inches before cutting and creating a rain garden beside asphalt surfaces such as driveways, they said.

In 2009, the Kennebunkport Conservation Commission, in partnership with the University of New England, the Maine Lobstermen’s Association and others, developed the Lawns for Lobsters program, which has spread all over the state of Maine, according to the Cape Neddick Association website, www.capeneddickriver.org.

From the Seacoastonline article River association makes environmental push in Lawns 2 Lobsters.

…Shame on us if we saddle our children and grandchildren with our addiction to oil, a dependency that has shackled our economy and put many of us in danger of freezing to death.

The best gifts we can give our descendants are renewable energy sources right . . . → Read More: Renewable energy as a moral imperative]]> From an editorial in the 1/25/12 Kennebec Journal:

…Shame on us if we saddle our children and grandchildren with our addiction to oil, a dependency that has shackled our economy and put many of us in danger of freezing to death.

The best gifts we can give our descendants are renewable energy sources right here in Maine. This is a moral imperative. And that’s why the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Initiative is so important. Best of all — you get to decide!

Maine Citizens for Clean Energy — a coalition that includes environmental groups, labor unions and businesses — has collected sufficient signatures to qualify their initiative for the November ballot. The initiative would require that at least 20 percent of Maine’s electricity come from renewable energy sources, including wind, water, and wood by 2020.

…”We have tremendous potential to grow the production and use of our own indigenous renewable energy resources … and we can do so in a way that makes sense for the ratepayers, for our economy, for public health and that clean air and clean water.”

Read the rest of the editorial.

The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as . . . → Read More: 2011: Earth’s 11th warmest year]]> The numbers are in, and 2011 was another one for the record books.  A great source of weather and climate information is the blog of Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground.com.

The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.

Masters also explains how much of these temperature changes are due to natural causes like the El Nino and La Nina events. More on that in a later post.

The 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely . . . → Read More: Updated plant hardiness zone maps]]> For gardeners who are thinking about spring planting season (that would be all of us), there is a new USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map. Here is the section that covers southern Maine:

The 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10-degree F zones.

For the first time, the map is available as an interactive GIS-based map, for which a broadband Internet connection is recommended, and as static images for those with slower Internet access. Users may also simply type in a ZIP Code and find the hardiness zone for that area.

For various reasons, this updated map shows that parts of southern York County have “moved” from Zone 5b to  Zone 6a, which, incidentally, is the same zone as half of Missouri and most of Ohio.

In the film, Rose is first introduced in the form of an elderly woman – spunky but well-advanced in her years – accompanying a group of modern-day . . . → Read More: YEEC Co-Founder Cynthia Raymond 1913-2011]]> When I first met Cynthia Raymond in 2005, she immediately reminded me of Rose – the plucky, fictional heroine of James Cameron’s classic 1997 film, “Titanic”.

In the film, Rose is first introduced in the form of an elderly woman – spunky but well-advanced in her years – accompanying a group of modern-day treasure hunters in search of a famed jewel rumored to be on Titanic.  We don’t meet this version of Rose very much as the movie progresses but she reappears dramatically in the unforgettable conclusion.  When Rose quietly passes in her sleep in the final moments, a series of photographs flash by chronicling the long accomplished life she lived after surviving the Titanic and losing her true love.

While the character of Rose was fictional, Cynthia was not.  Born a year after the sinking of the Titanic, she had already accomplished so much in her life by the time I met her.  You could feel it in her presence, in her voice, in her passionate enthusiasm for the things she cared deeply for.  I wasn’t just impressed by what she had done – but what she was still doing at age 92 when I first met her.

Throughout her long life, she was a passionate advocate for protecting the environment, conserving natural resources, and celebrating the beauty of nature. A prolific writer of letters-to-the-editor, her written voice was always articulate, vibrant, and classy.  When energy and environmental policy was being discussed at town meetings, Cynthia was often there in the audience – quietly speaking with her presence.  I’ll never forget the time I saw then state senator, Peter Bowman come to one of our meetings at the library.  Surprised, I asked him why he was there given his busy schedule.  His response, “when Cynthia Raymond asks me to come to a meeting, – I come to the meeting!”   She was just that kind of person.

I’m honored to have known and worked with her, and for my daughter to have met her.  She will be missed.

York Energy Efficiency Committee